Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris among Catholic voters in key swing states, according to a recent poll conducted by the National Catholic Reporter.
Released on Wednesday, the poll indicates that Trump holds an advantage over Harris among Catholic voters in seven battleground states, identified as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The data was collected through an online research study conducted by Mercury Analytics from October 3 to October 8, involving 1,172 Catholic voters in swing states, with an overall margin of error of +/- 2.86% at a 95% confidence level.
When NCR inquired about who they would support if the election were held today, 50% of respondents indicated that they would “probably” or “definitely” vote for Trump, while 45% said they would “probably” or “definitely” support Harris. The remaining respondents were either “not sure” about their choice or indicated they would be “voting for someone else.”
Trump's lead became more pronounced among white Catholic respondents, where he led by 16%. Conversely, Harris showed significant support among Hispanic Catholic respondents (67%) and black Catholic respondents (77%). Slightly more swing state Catholic voters aged 18-29 favored Harris (47%) over Trump (46%), while voters aged 50-64 demonstrated stronger support for Trump (54%) compared to Harris (43%).
In analysis published by NCR on Monday, it was noted that Catholic voters in swing states “were more likely to say they support their preferred candidate for reasons that go against [Catholic] church teaching,” with Trump supporters favoring his anti-illegal immigration policies and Harris voters backing her stance on reproductive rights, commonly referred to as abortion.
NCR added, “In the battleground states, Catholic populations are sizable and are seen as so important to the Trump and Harris campaigns that both have launched efforts to woo the so-called Catholic vote.” For instance, in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, approximately one-quarter of adults identify as Catholic.
Furthermore, the report highlighted that Trump leads overall among Catholic voters in five of the seven individual states, although some leads are within the margin of error. Trump has particularly larger leads in Wisconsin, where he is ahead by 18 percentage points, and in Michigan, where he leads by 12 points among Catholic voters.
The NCR report also revealed that 75% of respondents identified the economy as one of their “most important” issues in this election, followed by 60% citing border and immigration, 53% mentioning healthcare, 52% referencing taxes, and 46% highlighting affordable housing.
Additionally, a report from the Pew Research Center recently found that 52% of Catholics planned to vote for Trump, while 47% intended to support Harris. This study also revealed that 61% of Protestants supported Trump, while 37% backed Harris.
Last month, Harris attracted controversy when she announced her decision not to attend the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner, a longstanding charitable event in the Catholic community that presidential candidates from both parties have traditionally attended for decades.
