John Allen Jr., a Vatican insider, is discussing the difficulty of accurately predicting major events and using the example of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as an example of a significant event that few analysts had predicted.
According to CruxNow, despite this, the author is still making predictions about the Vatican in 2023 and acknowledges that they may have yet to come true. However, if any predictions come true, the author wants to be credited for making the correct prediction. If none of the predictions come true, the author plans to remove this post from the website and pretend it never happened.
Five Bold Predictions for 2023
1. Speculation About the End of Pope Francis' Papacy.
There has been speculation about the end of Pope Francis' papacy, particularly in light of the recent report on BBC News, about the passing away of Pope emeritus Benedict XVI.
Some people believe that Francis would be open to resigning as pope if his health or energy levels were to decline. However, he would refrain from doing so as long as Benedict is still alive to avoid having two retired popes simultaneously. But because of the recent death of Benedict, there is a great chance this might happen.
Despite this, it is expected that speculation about a transition in the papacy will increase as Francis, who is 86 years old and uses a wheelchair, continues to age. This is even though Francis still has an ambitious travel schedule and plans to see his synodal process through to completion in 2024, as well as the fact that he is working to implement a sweeping overhaul of the Vatican.
However, any health issues or other indications that Francis may not be able to continue serving as pope for much longer are likely to fuel speculation about the end of his papacy.
Also read: Pope Francis Reveals He Has Signed a Resignation Letter Due to Potential Health Issues
2. The #MeToo movement, which is focused on combating sexual harassment and assault, will arrive in the Catholic Church.
The Catholic Church will be forced to take a more aggressive stance toward the abuse of adults, especially women, in 2023. This shift is driven by the case of Jesuit Father Marko Rupnik, who has been accused of sexual and spiritual abuse of nuns and abuse of the sacrament of confession, according to an article in Christianity Daily.
Although Pope Francis expanded the definition of sexual abuse in church law to include adults in 2021, this change has been uneven enforcement. In the coming year, Pope Francis and other church leaders will face pressure to address this issue and the gaps in abuse policies and procedures highlighted by the Rupnik case.
3. The word "synodality" will be a significant term in the coming year.
Two significant dates in 2023 related to the concept of "synodality," or collaboration and shared decision-making within the Catholic Church. The first is March 5, when the German "Synodal Way'' will hold its final plenary assembly, and the second is October 4, when Pope Francis will open the first of two Synods of Bishops on Synodality in the Vatican.
The tension between these two expressions of synodality, and the differing views on issues such as same-sex marriage, clerical celibacy, women's ordination, and the role of laypeople in the selection of bishops, is expected to be a significant issue in the coming year. Pope Francis is expected to face challenges in managing expectations for his Synod of Bishops and delivering fundamental changes to the Church's structure while promoting greater consultation and participation.
4. There will be difficulties or challenges related to the Holy Land.
The Holy Land is expected to be a source of difficulties or challenges for the Vatican in 2023 due to the new right-wing and nationalist government in Israel. The Vatican has traditionally supported the two-state solution to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and the status quo concerning shared religious sites. Still, the new government does not seem committed to these positions, which could lead to diplomatic conflict.
In addition, the new government's attitude towards religious minorities in Israel, including the dwindling Christian minority, may cause new pressures for the Catholic Church. In 2023, the 30th anniversary of the Fundamental Agreement between Israel and the Holy See that established diplomatic relations will be celebrated. Still, the lack of progress on a promised additional agreement dealing with financial, tax, and property issues will also be noted.
The Catholic ordinaries of the Holy Land have recently opened a "Professional Legal Office" to provide legal support to Catholic institutions in the region, indicating that they expect potential legal conflicts in the future.
5. The Vatican may have the opportunity to engage with Iran.
The Vatican may be able to play a significant role in the conflict in Iran in 2023. Iran is experiencing its longest-running public demonstrations since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and the situation is becoming increasingly unstable.
The Vatican has unique capabilities for engaging with Iran because the two have had full diplomatic relations since 1954. The Catholic version of Christianity has many similarities with the Shi'a form of Islam that is dominant in Iran. If the Vatican can effectively utilize these advantages, it may be one of the few external actors able to influence Iran toward moderation and reform.
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